Fishmeal Supply Shock in 2027-28

Rabobank Warns!

Rabobank warns that the global supply of fishmeal could be severely undersupplied by 2028. The reason for this is that the production of marine raw materials used in fishmeal production can no longer increase and the current production is not expanding enough to meet demand.

According to the analysis:
- Fishmeal production is already limited by global fishing quotas, with most fishing activities operating within existing limits.
- If the current usage rate of fishmeal and fish oil does not decrease further, the supply may not be able to meet the demand.
- Notably, the anticipation of El Niño's reappearance in 2028 stands out as one of the factors that will further complicate supply.

To mitigate this risk, the industry needs to develop a strategic and comprehensive plan rather than relying on short-term market relationships.

Possible solutions include:
- Remaking feed formulations in a way to reduce the proportion of seafood raw materials,
- Increased use of by-products from fish production in the production of fishmeal and fish oil,
- Increasing new sources such as algae oil, insect meal and single-cell protein as alternative raw materials.

HOW PREPARED IS THE AQUACULTURE SECTOR FOR A POSSIBLE SUPPLY SHOCK?